Afghan Refugees in Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

                                             

In the south ASIA region AFGHANISTAN is the most volatile and unstable country. Multiple groups are fighting for the same throne. This was not same, In 60's most of the countries of the region were of secular mind set. Iran under the SHAH's regime were very advance in culture and inspired by the westerns civil laws and constitutions. Pakistan was hosting the adult Hollywood movies in Karachi, pubs for the gentlemen class, clubs for the tourists, prostitutions and every kind of freedom with  minor limitations in INDO-BRITISH constitution of 1937. Afghanistan was under the influence of USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republic).

Here to discuss the international tussle  is very important, two super powers USA and USSR. USSR support the Vietnamese militias against the USA attack and they succeed in it. USA was ready to take the revenge from the USSR same way as they were treated, because it was calculated that the direct war can ignite the WorldWar3 and everyone knows that the nuclear weapons will completely vanish the humanity life style. 

Strategic depth from Afghan Refugees 

Pakistan under the Zulifkar Ali Bhutto, was in USA block and the tussle of the two nations INDIA and PAKISTAN over Kashmir issue was new. It was considered that USA will support the Pakistan over Kashmir issue as USSR supporting the Indian theory, while India was a neutral state. Pakistan was finding the threat from the USSR in that sense. That was not the reason of cold war, Afghanistan under the Shah's rule playing pro USSR cards in the region that was the threat for the Pakistan on both sides from India and Afghanistan. Most of the 

students of KABUL university in Afghanistan were very disappointed from the Shah secular mind set. Pakistan started supporting them against the ruler and pro USSR slogans were suddenly minimized. USSR for supporting the Shah and decided to take strict action against the rebels (students of Kabul university with were after known as TALIBAN). This time was very important to tackle the red bear and save the 2250km border of Pakistan. 1979 was the time when that war was begin on the land of Afghanistan, from Pakistan Zia Ul Haq take the control of the country though coup and this war was his passion and he succeed in 1989 with the withdrawal of USSR and breaking of it in to several pieces which give birth to the many other Central Asian countries like Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

Statistics of cold war

The Soviet–Afghan War was a conflict wherein insurgent groups (known collectively because the Mujahideen), likewise as smaller Maoist groups, fought a nine-year guerrilla war against the Soviet Army and also the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan government throughout the 1980s, mostly within the Afghan countryside. The Mujahideen were variously backed primarily by the united states, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia , China, and also the United Kingdom; the conflict was a cold War-era proxy war. Between 562,000 and 2,000,000 civilians were killed and millions of Afghans fled the country as refugees, mostly to Pakistan and Iran. The war caused grave destruction in Afghanistan and is believed to possess contributed to the Soviet collapse, in hindsight leaving a mixed legacy to people in both territories. Though some figures estimate by 1990, nearly 4.5 million undocumented Afghan refugees resided throughout Pakistan. Aided by the UNHCR, and primarily funded by the united states government, Pakistan continued to simply accept and support the inclusion of those Afghan refugees throughout the last decade . In late 1988, almost 3.0 million Afghan refugees were housed in refugee camps along the Afghan-Pakistan border in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).

9/11 and the Taliban

In 2001, attack on the world trade center shocked the whole world where more than 2000 people were killed, It was the Al-Qaida who was responsible for it. Osama bin laden, leader of the Al-Qaida was hidden in Afghanistan and directly it was threat for it. Taliban was ready to exile the Osama but that was too late. USA planned mission to destroy the Al-Qaida and give a hard punch to the Taliban's for not obeying their order. USA started bombing the Afghanistan with B52 jets and heavy artillery's was shipped to Afghanistan via Pakistan and Iran. Over 3 million refugees came in to the Pakistan and never returned.

Refugees in Pakistan

In both wars, war against red bear and the war against white soldiers, Pakistan hosted million of the refugees, that effect seriously our economy and culture, Afghan people proud is their culture or you can say a criminal culture, where ages ago laws are implementing but in term of defense, they use world class vehicle and weapons to get rid over their enemy tribal groups and this is continue from centuries. women's are treated like animals, father decide the fate of the daughter, brother misuse the sister for his own wishes, mostly women's are abused education is closed.

In all these circumstances why the people who grow up in Pakistan will go back to the Afghan land where there is no hope for peace and facilities are minimal?

The UNHCR detailed in February 2017 that approximately 1.3 million registered Afghan citizens still remained in Pakistan, dispersed as follows: Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (62 percent), Baluchistan (20 percent),  Punjab (10 percent),  Sindh (4 percent) and Islamabad (2 percent). They are primarily Afghanistan's Pashtuns, taken after by Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Baloch and Turkmen. In March 2012, Pakistan prohibited visa expansions for all foreigners. In September 2018, Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan made a shock declaration vowing to allow citizenship to 1.5 million Afghan refugees resident in Pakistan. This promise, however, was not followed through.

As of 2016, over 4.3 million Afghans were repatriated from Pakistan through the UNHCR since March 2002. According to Census of Afghans in Pakistan, a 2005 Pakistani Ministry of States and Frontier Locales report, the ethnic breakdown of Afghans in Pakistan was Pashtuns (81.5 percent), Tajiks (7.3 percent), Uzbeks (2.3 percent), Hazara (1.3 percent), Turkmen (2.0 percent), Balochi (1.7 percent) and others (3.9 percent). The government of Pakistan gets $133 million per year ($78 per individual) from the UNHCR for facilitating Afghans. In 2005 the government of Pakistan started enlisting Afghans, and the number of enrolled Afghans was detailed at 2.15 million in February 2007. They received computer-generated "confirmation of enrollment" (CoR) cards with biometric features—similar to the Pakistani Computerized National Identity Card (CNIC) but with "Afghan Citizen" on its front. More than 357,000 Afghans were repatriated from Pakistan in 2007,  and Afghans were repatriated between March and October of each subsequent year. Returnees were reportedly to be given land by the Afghan government to construct a home, and each individual gotten a travel package worth approximately $100 (which was expanded to $400).  Almost 80 percent of the returnees came from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 11 percent from Baluchistan, 3 percent from Sindh.  Afghans children close Islamabad. In June 2010 Pakistan confirmed the Joined together Countries Convention against Torture, which restricts part states from deporting, removing or returning individuals where there's reason to accept they will be tortured. The government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has increased its efforts toward a large-scale deportation of Afghan displaced people from the province. The Afghan minister of refugees and repatriation declared that his ministry would set up 48 towns in Afghanistan for displaced people returning from Pakistan and Iran. Between 2010 and the end of 2012, a report 229,000 Afghan outcasts returned from Pakistan. Some Pakistani authorities have evaluated that 400,000 non-registered Afghans may be living in their country.  A add up to of 380,884 Afghan displaced people cleared out Pakistan for Afghanistan in 2016. Most were born and raised in Pakistan, but are still counted as citizens of Afghanistan. The UNHCR reported in February 2017 that almost 1.3 million registered Afghans still remained in Pakistan. They are permitted to work, lease lodging, travel and go to schools within the nation until the end of 2017.

Current life of afghan refugees in Pakistan

No question life for Afghan displaced people in Pakistan isn't easy but still there's trust of a better standard of life as there are numerous afghan families who have well set up their roots in Pakistan and the children of such families who are born here takes Pakistan as their mother land and they have totally abandoned the choice of going back to Afghanistan. Such families have get to to all the offices that an normal Pakistani family can have, which include but not limited to great wellbeing care, enrollment in instruction institutes, great work markets, self business establishment and numerous more such facilities. However, a major chunk of the Afghan populace in Pakistan is having hopeless lives, they usually come beneath the bunch who are underneath destitution and can scarcely manage two times supper a day. Critical needs related to refugees’ get to to instruction, regenerative wellbeing services, and professional preparing and job openings remains neglected. In refugee-hosting communities, , health care, water and sanitation, livelihoods

Repatriation by will or by force?

Whereas it is vital to highlight the liberality of Pakistani Government it ought to be more critical of its part in encouraging the repatriation of over 2.7 million Afghans to a nation that lacks soundness. The wording of ‘safe return’ has been progressively utilized to awe upon Afghans that the circumstance in their nation has improved for repatriation; in any case, as has been mentioned over, conditions are still fluid and distant from favorable for returnees. The Tripartite Agreement of 2003 talks of staged repatriation from Pakistan but the chance variables included in repatriating such gigantic numbers of returnees have not been given due thought.

The Future of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan 

Based on the approaches of Pakistan since 2001 and the current giver weariness, the part of UNHCR and the bulging concern of Pakistani Government over the quickly developing number of Afghan refugees, it is conceivable to foresee long run situation for Afghan refugees in Pakistan. There can be possible two circumstances depends on the up and coming races in Afghanistan: 

1. Most likely to happen: 

2. Most noticeably awful case

1. Most likely to happen: 

Successful elections and Political stability: The future of Afghanistan depends on the upcoming elections, most likely the political transition would be somehow based on political negotiations between the lead actors and will not result in an armed conflict or “take over” by Taliban but rather a much negotiated and somewhat planned path to expedite the departure of foreign troops and their way to return to power is most likely to happen. The security level will not be volatile but the economic situation would be vulnerable with lack of foreign aid. In such conditions, any bid to forcibly impose the state’s authority over its diverse people is unlikely to succeed. In the present context, the legitimacy of state can only be reconstituted after a central authority succeeds in accommodating some of the most basic demands of the major elements composing Afghan civil society.

 Implications on Pakistan: If the elections went well and there is no security emergency in Afghanistan then we may witness some movement of Afghan refugees to Afghanistan but again most likely most of the refugee will like “to wait and see” the situation in Afghanistan for a couple of months and then they may decide to either have a visit and assess the situation if it is not favorable they might come back or move permanently. 

Based on the aforementioned factors certain assumptive conclusions are:-

a. Afghanistan is likely to remain economically dependent, thus its politico military structure will remain unstable and subdued; subjected to the quantum of aid and wishes of the donors. 

b. The strong effect of society, attitudes, social customs and psychological make up are likely to continue in a significant manner in times to come. 

2.Worst case: The worst case scenario is considered unlikely to happen, which is the resumption of civil war. In the absence of peace, the re-establishment of state legitimacy will not be possible. Such a situation will lead to the formation of independent fiefdoms, controlled on the grounds of ethnicity, sectarianism, tribal origin or territorial identities. In such a case the election might be a failure comprised of fraud and thus will not be concluded which will result in armed conflict. In such case there might be security evacuation for most of the humanitarian agencies including the UN and thus leaving Afghanistan once again in a state of unmet needs and closing the doors on development and prosperity.

 Implications on Pakistan: Huge number of influx of refugees, it will certainly be a big challenge for the Pakistani Government economically and especially security wise to cater to the needs of growing number of refugee population. There will be more internal displacement if the influx is towards the FATA/tribal regions which will result in increased insecurity. The “push factors” for the Pakistan Government in such case is likely to increase, leading to forced repatriation. Afghans will probably face even more pressures from Pakistan as many have shown their reservations to return. The closure of camps, the Pak-Afghan border and educational institutions is an indicator of the official mindset The door that welcomed Afghans is most likely to shut and they are being asked to repatriate.

 

Recommendations

 It is interesting to know the future of Afghan refugees depends on the validity of the Tripartite Agreement as when the agreement expires, will there be illegal border crossing? And how to ensure that there will be no or less movement from the border of Afghanistan to Pakistan? Below are some of the recommendations for the Pakistani Government and lead humanitarian actors who are assisting the afghan refugees: 

1. Proper screening of Afghans can take place with the financial and technical assistance of UNHCR after the expiry of the Tripartite Agreement, as initially envisaged, it will help Pakistan adopt a policy for dealing with the remaining refugee population. Those who still qualify to be refugees should be treated and assisted accordingly. Those who are screened out should not be harassed to repatriate immediately but should be informed about their illegal status and the problems they would be facing in future because of their status. How to achieve the target without using force or harassment is indeed an area that should be looked into. Repatriation should be made more attractive for returnees; otherwise, it will reverse itself. Refugees should sense that they are not being pushed back to their country, which is still gripped by instability. Repatriating refugees in an atmosphere of cordiality could become a major bridge for Pakistan to build a lasting relationship with its neighbor.

2. Pakistan should pursue role of constructive engagement in Afghanistan. The first priority should be to impress upon the new government the need for the maintenance of conditions for the unimpeded flow of humanitarian assistance to the population. 

3. Priority needs to be given to measures to assist the refugees, both with their current needs, and with the creation of conditions for their return to their homes. 

4. To ensure safety and security of its own people it is much demanded to carry out an immediate census in order to cancel maximum illegally acquired national ID cards and domicile certificates. 

5. Government of Pakistan should introduce relevant themes through mass media to indoctrinate the refugees to return to their homeland and help in its reconstruction. 

6. It is imperative that the regional countries exert pressure on various Afghan factions under their influence for patching up their differences and for holding dialogue without any pre-conditions in the larger interest of the region. Pakistan, having vital geostrategic and trade interests in Afghanistan should play more effective and assertive role in this regard. Pakistan and Afghanistan have become economically interlinked after the Afghan war. A share in Afghanistan’s reconstruction coupled with commercial relations is likely to have positive influence on Pakistan’s economic sector. Aware of the prevailing cross currents, regional moods and own situation, Pakistan must make concrete efforts to help restore a peaceful long term political stability in Afghanistan, as it would be in her own larger interest. 

7. On the other side of the border the Afghan government has to adopt a balanced and integrated approach to make repatriation durable and sustainable. The essential confidence and will of the people to overcome the present difficulties and face challenges need to come from within, and should not depend on strategies worked out on foreign lands to rebuild and reconstruct Afghanistan. While such policies may have positive intentions, plans imposed from outside have never worked with Afghans. Rebirth, therefore, has to come from the Afghans who have suffered from decades of civil war.